Former President Donald Trump scored a resounding victory in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, powered by strong support from his loyal base of older, conservative, white evangelical voters and those embracing the MAGA movement and Trump’s false election fraud claims.
An analysis of entrance polls shows Trump prevailed despite minimal campaigning in Iowa and facing notable challengers organizing for months in the state. His margin of victory was the widest in any seriously contested GOP Iowa caucus since they began in 1976.
The polls revealed deep support for Trump among core Republican groups that form his base. Sixty-three percent would still consider him fit for office if convicted of a crime, and 69% of those who embrace Trump’s false 2020 election theft claims supported him.
Compared to his narrow second-place finish in 2016, Trump dramatically improved his support this time among very conservative voters, up 40 points to 51%, and white evangelicals, up 32 points to 53%. He also vastly improved among those prioritizing shared values, garnering 43% support compared to just 5% in 2016.
Eighty percent of caucus-goers had settled on a candidate before January, indicating the extensive campaigning had minimal impact. The results reinforce Trump’s continued grip on the GOP’s most loyal conservatives, but also show potential weaknesses among moderates, younger voters, and those focused on electability.
The extensive last-minute campaigning by candidates ahead of the Iowa caucuses appears to have had minimal impact, as 80% of caucus-goers said they had already made up their minds either earlier in January (15%) or before that (65%).
In terms of voter turnout demographics, 89% identified as conservative, with 52% saying they were “very” conservative – both new highs. White voters made up a substantial 98% of caucus-goers, while white evangelical Christians accounted for 55%, just a 1 point dip compared to 2012.
Trump won 55% of total conservative voters, a 32 point improvement over his 2016 performance. Among “very” conservative voters specifically, he took 51% support, marking a 40 point gain versus 2016.
Although slightly fewer white evangelical Christians turned out versus previous years, Trump still managed to win 53% of them – a 32 point bump over his 2016 evangelical support.
The top two issues were the economy at 38% and immigration at 34%. Foreign policy and abortion trailed far behind at 12% and 11% respectively.
Trump handily won voters focused on the two main issues, garnering 64% support from immigration-driven voters. Though they were very few, abortion voters favored DeSantis while Haley took 45% of the small foreign policy group compared to 36% for Trump.
Trump saw dramatic improvements compared to 2016 among voters prioritizing shared values, garnering 43% support versus just 5% last time. He also won a vast 82% of voters seeking a fighter.
While Haley led among moderates and temperament-focused voters, these were very small shares of the Iowa GOP electorate. Trump’s dominance among the mainstream conservative and evangelical groups illustrates the uphill battle his challengers face.
